The impact of global warming in europe and russia

Europe?s natural ecosystems are generally fragmented and disturbed, making them very sensitive to climate change. Most of Europe experienced temperature increases this century that are larger than the global average, and precipitation generally increased in the north but decreased in the south. The warming is clearly noticeable in mountain regions by the widespread retreat of glaciers in the Alps. Plant and animal species are also apparently responding to the changes by shifting their ranges northward and by changing the timing of their activities to coincide with an earlier spring. The fragmented nature of the European landscape, however, may make it difficult for less adaptive species to respond to continued climatic warming.

For Europe (and North America) we have many more hotspots than for some other regions of the world, although impact studies have been emerging in larger numbers in recent years from previously under-studied regions. This higher density of early warning signs in Europe is due in part to the fact that these regions have more readily accessible climatic data and more comprehensive programs to monitor and study environmental change, in part to the disproportionate warming that has been observed over the mid-to-high-latitude continents compared to other regions during the last century, and in part to emphasize the importance of the industrialized countries of Europe taking strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Fingerprints
6. Central England -- Cold days declining, hot days increasing, 1772 to present. 1995 brought 26 days above 68?F (20?C) versus an average of 4 days per year since 1772.

60. Caucasus Mountains, Russia -- Half of all glacial ice disappeared in the past 100 years.

63. Austria -- Record glacial retreat. Emergence of a frozen Stone Age mummy from a melting glacier in the Oetztal Alps indicates that glacial ice is more reduced today than at any time during the past 5,000 years.

66. Spain -- Half of glaciers present in 1980 are gone.

97. Southeast Europe and Middle East - Widespread heat wave, July-August 2000. Temperatures reached as high as 111?F (43.8?C) in locations across Turkey, Greece, Romania, Italy, and Bulgaria. In Bulgaria, 100-year records for daily maximum temperature were broken at more than 75% of the observing stations on July 5th. For Armenia, 2000 was the hottest summer of the century. Jordan reported the longest stretch of summer heat in its 77-year record. Continental Europe warmed 1.4?F (0.8?C) during the past century, with the last decade being the warmest on record.

98. Denmark and Germany - 2001 - Warmest October on record. In Germany temperatures were as much as 7?F (4?C) above average. The record-breaking temperatures occurred in the context of a warming trend of 1.4?F (0.8?C) over continental Europe during the past century.

99. Central England - 2001 - Warmest October on record. Over the 20th century Central England temperature has warmed by about 1?F (0.5?C). Four of the five warmest years on the 343-year record occurred in the last decade.

137. Greenland - Rapid thinning of ice sheet. Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet in coastal areas, especially of outlet glaciers, has been measured in two studies during the 1990s. The coastal land ice loss is attributed to a combination of warming-driven factors, including increased melting during warmer summers, high snow accumulation rates feeding the outlet glaciers, and increased rates of melting at the bottom of glaciers due to ocean warming.

138. Arctic Ocean - Decreasing ice thickness. Ice thickness at 29 stations, as measured by submarine sonar, decreased by an average of more than 4 feet (1.2 m) compared to 20 to 40 years ago, representing a 40% reduction in ice volume. From 1966 to 1995, annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by as much as 1.8?F (1?C) per decade, and spring temperatures increased by as much as 3.6?F (2?C) per decade. Temperature reconstructions from tree rings, ice cores, and other long-term records indicate that the 20th century was the warmest century in the Arctic since 1600.

139. Arctic Ocean - Decreasing ice cover. Satellite measurements indicate the area of perennial ice cover has decreased by about 7% per decade since 1978.




Harbingers
20. United Kingdom -- Toads, frogs, and newts spawning early. Spawning was 9 to 10 days earlier over a 17-year period.

21. United Kingdom -- Birds laying eggs early. From 1971 to 1995, 31 percent of 65 bird species studied in England showed significant trends towards earlier egg laying, moving up the date by an average of 8.8 days.

22. Southern England -- Early leafing of oak trees. The four earliest leafing dates occurred in the past decade, a response to increasing temperatures during January to March over the past 41 years.

27. Austria -- Alpine plants retreat up mountains. Over a 70 to 90 year period, alpine plants in the Austrian and Swiss Alps moved higher up on mountain slopes in response to an increase in average annual temperature.

29. Europe -- Butterfly ranges shift northward. 22 of 35 butterfly species studied have shifted their ranges northwards by 22 to 150 miles (35-241 km), consistent with a 1.4?F (0.78?C) warming over the past century.

30. Germany -- Mollusc range shift. 20% of 40 mollusc species in a national park have changed their distribution in response to warming.

37. United Kingdom -- Birds shift northward. Over a 20-year period, many birds have extended the northern margins of their ranges by an average of about 12 miles (19 km).

83. Mediterranean -- Intense drought and fires. Spain lost more than 1.2 million acres (485,622 hectares) of forest to wildfires in 1994, and 370,000 acres (149,734 hectares) burned in each of Greece and Italy in 1998.

104. Tornionjoki River, Finland - Earlier ice break-up. Spring ice breakup now comes about 7 days earlier compared to a century ago. Thirty-eight of 39 records of ice cover from throughout the Northern Hemisphere show a trend toward earlier spring ice breakup and later winter freezing between 1846 and 1995. This shift corresponds with surface air temperature measurements showing the largest rates of warming since 1976 over the mid- and high latitude continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

106. The Netherlands - Earlier flight peak of moths. Between 1975 and 1996 the flight peak of small moths shifted to a date 11.6 days earlier. Warmer temperatures promote the earlier appearance of insects and earlier peak flight times.

107. Hungary - Earlier flowering dates. Flowering dates of the locust tree occurred 3-8 days earlier during the period 1983-1994 compared to 1851-1930. The study indicates that a rise in temperature of 1.8?F (1?C) causes an advanced flowering by 7 days.

108. Europe - Change in timing of spring and autumn events. A study of European plants from 1959 to 1993 shows that spring events (such as flowering) have advanced by about 6 days and autumn events (such as leaf coloring) have been delayed by about 5 days. The plant response occurred during a period of a warming. Annual average temperature over continental Europe has increased 1.4?F over the past century.

111. Europe - Earlier growing season. A study of the timing of leaf unfolding for four tree species shows that from 1969 to 1998 the beginning of the growing season has advanced by 8 days. The earlier leaf unfolding corresponds with increasing early spring temperatures over the last 30 years. The greatest warming occurred in Portugal, where average air temperatures in early spring (February to March) increased by nearly 1.1?F (0.6?C) per decade, and the beginning of the growing season has advanced by about 14 days since 1969.

112. Turku, Finland - Longer growing season. The growing season has lengthened by over 10 days over the last century. Throughout the Nordic region the start of the growing season has become progressively earlier by between 4 and 12 days.

113. England - Earlier first flowering date. One of the most comprehensive studies of plant species in Britain revealed that the average first flowering date of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades: 16% of species flowered significantly earlier in the 1990s than previously, with an average advancement of 15 days in a decade. These data reveal the strongest biological signal yet of climatic change. Flowering is especially sensitive to the temperature in the previous month, and spring-flowering species are most responsive.

118. United Kingdom - British birds extend their ranges northward. A comparison of the breeding distributions of birds for two time periods, 1968-72 and 1988-91, showed that the northern margins for many species had moved northwards by an average of about 12 miles (19 km). The range shift occurred during a period when central England?s temperature warmed by about 0.9?F (0.5?C) over the last century, and the 10-year period 1988-1997 was the warmest such period in the record.

144. Southeastern Norway - Wettest year on record, 2000. The year 2000 was the wettest year since records began in 1895. Precipitation in northern Europe has increased 10-40% in the last century.

152. Samos Island, Greece - Fires, July 2000 Fires due to dry conditions and record-breaking heat consumed one-fifth of the island. Temperatures reached up to 104?F (40?C) in some areas. Averaged over the continent, Europe has warmed 1.4?F (0.8?C) during the past century.